Tag: investing

Three Steps to Take Before Starting Investing

As most people know, investing is a smart thing to do. While you go out to work for the day, you’re happy knowing that over time, your money is working for you too.

Especially with uncertainty over the future of state pensions, investing is a subject that is becoming more important for financial security and freedom going into retirement ages. According to Andrew Craig in his book How to Own the World, anyone under the age of 50 should assume that the government will be in so much debt by the time you retire, that they will no longer be able to offer you a state pension.

But before you jump in with two feet, what are a few things you should make sure of before you start your investment journey?

Pay Off Any Non-Student/Mortgage Loan Debt

There’s no point investing until you have paid off any debt that isn’t from your student loan or mortgage. The reason being is that some types of debt such as credit card debt have high rates of interest. This means that even if you are making a solid 10% return on your investments, you will be paying 20%+ interest rates on your debt – basically placing yourself on the wrong side of compound interest.

Build An Emergency Fund

The last thing you want to do is have to sell your investments because you lost your job or an unexpected expense came up, so before you start investing make sure you have a comfortable amount of cash in a savings account as a security blanket. Selling off your investments can increase your investment fees, but it also encourages you create a habit of doing it in the future too, which can lower your investment returns for years to come. Six months to a year’s worth of expenses should be ample in an emergency fund.

Create An Investment Plan

It’s not wise to just wing it when it comes to investing. Figure out which investment vehicles you want to put your hard-earned money into, and decide what your psychological risk tolerance is. The key is to create a plan and have the discipline to stick to it. Decide the frequency and the amount you will be investing, and how diversified you want to be – whether to buy stocks, bonds, commodities, real estate, precious metals or even cryptocurrency. A lot of new investors will dabble in certain investments, and withdraw their money as soon as any losses appear. The investor that has a solid plan will be able to ride out any market uncertainties because they have already rehearsed beforehand what they would do in that situation.

The Permanent Portfolio: How to Invest Without Losing

The biggest fear people have when thinking about investing is that they don’t want to lose any money. If you were to do some number-crunching: if you lose 30% of your investment, you need a subsequent 42% gain to recoup your losses. If you were invested into the S&P 500 in 2008 when it lost 50% of its value, you would need a 100% increase to get back to where you were. Seems a little unfair right? But that’s why it’s called the break-even fallacy. This phenomenon is probably why Warren Buffett’s number one rule of investing is simply: “Don’t lose.”

Now that we know how important it is not to lose while investing long-term, how do we go about it?

In How to Own the World, author Andrew Craig outlines a simple portfolio that has only five losing years in the last 37, the worst being only 5.3%. The portfolio even had a positive year in 2008, the same year where the whole world was in financial crisis. The portfolio had an average 7.5% annual gain over the last 37 years.

It might not seem a lot to average 7.5% per year, but putting $100/month in this kind of investment would bring you $17,957.60 after 10 years, $55,500.52 after 20 years, $134,428.85 after 30 years, and $300,363.77 after 40 years. If you just kept the cash you would have amounted to $48,000 in that time. Even worse, if you spent that extra $100/month you’d have $0 after 40 years.

This asset allocation was created by Harry Browne – his idea being that if you owned a diverse range of assets, you should always have something that performs well.

The allocation is:

  • 25% stocks
  • 25% long-term US bonds
  • 25% gold
  • 25% cash

The reason why this combination works so well in managing risk is that these asset classes thrive in different market conditions. Gold is a good bet in times of inflation, while stocks grow in line with economic growth. Bonds are useful to own in times of lower than expected inflation or lower than expected economic growth. Cash gives you liquidity, no fees, an albeit small interest rate, and stability when the others lose value.

The advantage of this type of portfolio is the simplicity – you will only need to buy into two or three different funds and rebalance periodically. Even better, you won’t have to manage your emotions as much because there will be much fewer losing years than with most other types of investment portfolio.

The Government is Doctoring Inflation Rates To Secretly Confiscate Your Wealth

Inflation is defined as the rate of which the price of goods and services increase.

If you were to imagine the cost for a can of drink at the vending machine, petrol at the pump, housing or bread, the prices would have been much lower when you were growing up than they are now. That’s inflation in action.

If our wages don’t keep up with inflation, then our money doesn’t go as far and the standard of living falls.

So what is the current inflation rate? As of January 2021, the government quotes it at 0.7%. Compared to the 1970s where there was rampant inflation, this figure is historically low. Losing 0.7% of the value of your cash savings each year is a minor nuisance at best, and if your interest rate in your savings account matches that, then you wouldn’t be losing any value in your money in real terms at all. But there’s a twist in the tale.

What if the government’s figure of 0.7% didn’t actually match up to what’s really going on with prices in the country? What if real inflation was closer to 10%? After all, the US and UK governments have been inventing trillions of dollars of money in recent times in a process called quantitative easing, which is known to cause inflation.

In 1996, governments in the USA and UK decided to change the way that inflation rates would be calculated. They now use certain tricks such as substitution (using the price of the cheapest available type of product in the category they are calculating), geometric weighting (if they find something that has gone up a lot in price such as healthcare or property, they will assign an inappropriately low percentage of the calculation), and hedonic adjustment (reducing the price of an item like televisions because the item is higher quality than it was the year before). Hidden inflation is becoming more common too, such as when companies give you less of a product like Dairy Milk or Walker’s crisps for the same price, hoping that you won’t notice.

Even if you don’t understand this last paragraph fully, it basically means that the government is tweaking around figures in a formula to get a desired result, instead of doing it fairly. But why would they want inflation rates to seem lower than they actually are?

Firstly, because GDP numbers are inflation-adjusted. If governments are adjusting for inflation by their own fake figures instead of the real ones, it makes it look like the economy is growing even if the economies are actually going backwards. Put another way, because real inflation is at least 7% higher than quoted, it means that if the stock market isn’t growing at least 7% per year, people who invest into it aren’t actually profiting at all in real terms.

Additionally, governments want to quote low inflation rates so they can get away with meagre pay rises like the 1% it is giving NHS workers across the country. The news was not taken lightly after over a year of NHS workers being stretched to the limits during the COVID-19 pandemic. But, imagine if the government had given the 1% pay rise and then broke the news, “Oh, by the way, inflation is actually at 8%, not 0.7%.” The government would have basically rewarded the NHS workers by reducing their spending power by over 7%. The funny thing is that this is the reality.

It’s in the government’s best interests to keep the inflation rates lower than they really are – it makes them look better, and keeps the public from realizing that their standard of living may be dropping.

So, what if you’re reading this and you have excess cash that is sitting in a checking or savings account? You obviously won’t want the value of it to go down by 10% each year. Andrew Craig, the author of How to Own the World suggests to find a way to ‘own’ inflation. This means to buy things that we know are going up in price along with inflation – property, gold, commodities and shares.

Dan Lok’s Wealth Triangle: The Three Steps to Wealth

Dan Lok is a Chinese-Canadian entrepreneur and business mentor, and one of his ideas is of the Wealth Triangle. It consists of three sequential pillars for someone to follow in their journey towards financial confidence and freedom.

Here they are:

1. High-Income Skills

Learn a skill that has the potential to make you over $10,000/month or $100,000/year. Lok’s idea is if you’re going to trade your time for money, you may as well trade your time for a high amount of money. A high income skill could be in anything, and includes copywriting, sales, consulting, and social media marketing.

This was a large reason why I chose to learn sales in a commission-only compensation structure – it would give me the motivation to up-level my skills as quickly as possible, while being rewarded handsomely for any success. I’m happy to say that I reached and ticked off this pillar on the wealth triangle after two years of learning and applying sales skills.

The ideal here is to develop more than one high-income skill and bring them together to create even more confidence in your earning power.

If you’re not already practicing a high-income skill and you’re unhappy with your financial situation, this is where Lok suggests you start.

2. Scalable Business

So what happens when you’re already earning five figures a month and you’re ready to go to the next level? Lok’s next pillar is to create a scalable business. Not all businesses apply to this – Lok recommends avoiding businesses like restaurants that create lots of overhead costs or infrastructure. Scalable businesses leverage other people, systems and technology in order to create income from other people’s work. The idea of scalable business is to create cashflow in addition to your income.

In the industry I work in, I was able to start up a team of salespeople in order to leverage their skills instead of only relying on my own sales for income. This involved plenty of training, running sales meetings, and holding progress reviews. It’s definitely more of a challenge that just being responsible for yourself, but it can be more fulfilling if you bring a team along to succeed with you. The reason why it’s scalable is that the team can grow and the more experienced sales reps can become managers who recruit more reps too. The top sales managers in the industry I work earn millions per year.

However, Lok highlights that not everyone is cut out to start a scalable business. There can be risks of losing money, or carrying debt. It can be stressful. According to Lok, creating a scalable business is not essential for building wealth, and it is possible to become a multi-millionaire just from a mixture of high-income skill and the third pillar.

Lok reminds us that as we move onto building a scalable business, it’s important to skill be working on our high-income skill and generating income that way. If you’re just starting off with a scalable business, it’s unlikely that it will be immediately making more than your six-figure income, so keep utilizing your high-income skills to have the confidence of paying yourself, no matter what happens in your business. In my case, that meant going out and making my own sales while also managing other salespeople.

3. High-Return Investments

Lok defines a high-return investment as an investment that provides at least a 10 percent annual return, year in and year out. This is the best way to build your net-worth after you have at least developed your high-income skill. One example Lok gives of a high-return investment is real estate.

As good as a 10% annual return sounds, Lok recommends thinking more strategically – would this money get a better rate of return if I invested it into myself in training a high-income skill, or if I invested it in marketing for my scalable business? In my own life, I took advantage of reinvesting my money hundreds of times over into matched betting, a high-income skill I learned in 2015. At the time, I was saving for a trip to New Zealand and within six months of starting this “high-income skill”, I had earned over £15,000 for my trip, and actually started earning more through betting than I did with my regular job at the time. If I had instead put the savings I made from my low-wage job into a 10% investment vehicle, I would have come away with a tiny amount in comparison. The matched betting provided me with 500+% return, although I did have to spend time actively betting on my laptop.

Lok says that if you master the high-income skill portion of the Wealth Triangle, and invest it wisely, you can create a million dollar net worth in seven to 15 years if you’re able to keep your expenses in check.

The biggest reminder of the Wealth Triangle is that it is supposed to be used sequentially. Lots of people think about investing and starting businesses when they haven’t even harnessed any of their earning power yet. According to Lok, if you’re earning less than $10,000/month, hitting this consistently should be the main focus if your target is wealth. Trading your time for high dollars gives you a foundation that you can then move onto the second and third pillars. Sinking all your life savings into a business idea, like we see on Dragons’ Den, is a result of these entrepreneurs skipping the first stage of building up their high-income skills. When the Dragons inevitably say no, they are emotionally and financially bankrupt.

In summary: Build up a high-income skill, then work on a scalable business to create cashflow, and then invest in something with high returns to expand your net worth.

The Psychology of Money: Morgan Housel’s Finance Tips

Morgan Housel recently wrote The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness. No matter how we think about it, managing our own money and trying to build wealth is a game of emotions. Here’s a summary of the main points:

Go out of your way to find humility when things are going right, and forgiveness/compassion when they go wrong. The journey of building wealth is based on risk and luck. Remind yourself that the journey of investing is filled with ups and downs and to be ready for that emotionally.

Less ego, more wealth. Building wealth is simply spending less than you earn. Richness is buying cars, houses and boats. Wealth is what you don’t see – it’s money saved/invested instead of spent. The hardest financial skill is to get the goalposts to stop moving – life isn’t any fun without any sense of “enough”.

Manage your money in a way that helps you sleep at night. If you’re finding that you can’t sleep at night because you’re risking too much investing, you need to rethink your strategy. You may know it’s the “right” strategy, but if you can’t manage it emotionally, you may need to accept a lower risk and lower return by holding a higher percentage of your net worth in cash, or choosing lower risk strategies.

If you want to do better as an investor, the single most powerful thing you can do is increase your time horizon. Time is the most powerful force for growing your wealth. Be patient, and be in it for the long game like Ronald Read and Warren Buffett. In other words, just shut up and wait!

Become okay with a lot of things going wrong. You can be wrong half the time and still make a fortune. Having money in the market means you have to accept that on some days you may lose money, even as much as 30% or more of what you have invested. But if you can use the barbell strategy and invest in some assets with huge upside potential, you can still afford to be wrong most of the time while building wealth.

Use money to gain control over your time. Money means freedom. Being able to do what you want, when you want, with who you want is one thing that having money can bring.

Be nicer and less flashy. You may think people will like and respect you more based on your possessions, but in reality being more compassionate and kind works better. Make sure that when you’re buying possessions it’s for the right reasons – spending money to show people how much money you have is the fastest way to have less money.

Save. Just save. You don’t need a specific reason to save. Saving for something like a car or a down-payment for a house is good, but save as a default strategy too. Who knows what expenses can crop up as a surprise, wouldn’t it make more sense to be financially ready when they crop up?

Define the cost of success and be ready to pay it. The cost of success in investing is the uncertainty, the doubt, and the fear of losing some of your money. But if you want to play the game you need to see those things as a fee for participating. If you’re not willing to pay it, you may be better off just holding everything in cash and settling for a 0% return.

Worship room for error. You never want to be in a position where you could lose all your money, or losses in the market affecting the lifestyle that you live. If you lose a little you can still recover. If you lose it all, you have no money left, and you’ve been ejected from the game with no bankroll to buy back in. Avoid ruin at all costs.

Avoid the extreme ends of financial decisions. The more extreme your financial decisions, the more likely you may regret them if your goals and desires change at a later date. Good investing is less about making good decisions than it is about consistently not screwing up. You can afford not to be the best investor in the world, but you can’t afford to be a bad one.

You should like risk because it pays off over time. But you should be afraid of too much risk that would ruin your chances of winning the overall game.

Define the game you’re playing. Remember that everyone has their own unique financial goals based on the lifestyle and life goals they have. You don’t even necessarily have to compare yourself to overall market returns either. Just choose a strategy that you’d be happy with, without looking at other people and what they’re doing.

Respect the mess. There’s no single right answer in building wealth. Just find out what works for you.

Want to read more on investing? Read about Benjamin Graham’s value investing philosophy.

Ronald Read: The World’s Most Unexpected Millionaire

On June 2nd 2014, a 92-year-old man died in Vermont. His name was Ronald Read, and he was a retired janitor and gas station attendant. His favorite hobbies included wood-chopping and stamp-collecting. He grew up having to hitchhike to school, and served in the US military during World War II. He liked drinking coffee, and English muffins with peanut butter.

Soon after he died, Read’s name was all over the news headlines. In his will, he left $2 million to his two stepchildren and gave $6 million to his local hospital and library. Where on Earth did a retired janitor and gas station attendant get all that money from? He had lived frugally, and purchased blue-chip stocks throughout his working life. And then he waited, reinvested his dividends and watched his portfolio grow. By the time he died, the value of his holdings amounted to more than $8 million. Read went from janitor, to gas station attendant, to the greatest philanthropist his town had ever produced.

This story just demonstrates that wealth-building comes more from saving and investing than on income. Forming the habit of paying yourself first, and funding investment and savings before paying for expenses is probably one of the most valuable skills I have learned in the last few years. Many people postpone saving and investing for when their income rises to a particular level, but in reality when earnings increase it’s much easier just to spend the equivalent increase in money instead of growing wealth.

It also shows that pretty much anyone in the Western world can achieve this level of wealth, insofar as they live long enough and stay disciplined enough. The capability of the compound effect in investing is so powerful, but only when enough time is given to the compounding process. $82.6 billion of 90-year-old Warren Buffett’s $85.6 billion net worth came after his 65th birthday. And that’s not because he got way better at investing after 65, it’s just the absurdity of the compound effect.

The Intelligent Investor: Insights From Benjamin Graham

“Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.”

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

I recently read The Intelligent Investor by the legendary value investor Benjamin Graham. Known as the most complete guide to investing ever written, his wisdom has stood the test of time. His legacy lives on not only in this book, but in his students such as the mighty Warren Buffett.

The book is extensive and can be tough to digest at times, but it was well worth reading and I learned a lot.

One of the key lessons I learned is that you cannot sensibly become an enterprising investor unless you are willing to read a company’s annual report. An enterprising investor is one that picks specific stocks and buys them for a price that they deem is good value. The only way they can do that reliably is by perusing through several years’ worth of annual reports with a fine-toothed comb, looking for information to judge whether the company is undervalued or overvalued in the stock market. Even then they could still be wrong and end up losing money.

The good news is that I can become what’s termed a “defensive investor”. It doesn’t sound nearly as cool, and there’s no longer the possibility of bragging to your friends about picking winning stocks, but it is much less risky and takes much less time. Defensive investors usually buy a combination of low-cost index funds (groups of stocks that follow the entire market such as The Dow Jones Industrial Index or the Standard & Poors 500 Index) and bonds from governments and companies.

I was 15 years old the first time I was introduced to the idea of the stock market in my Statistics class in school. We were asked to go on the Internet and pretend we were investing in some stocks. I looked on the Dow Jones list and I remember just choosing the companies that had the green numbers next to them – the stock price was going up. If a stock price was going up, I could sell the stock a week later and win the competition of getting the highest profit in my class. But I was in for a shock.

The next week, I logged back in to find that not only had I not got the highest profit in the class, I had lost money! Unfortunately this is the reality for many wannabe traders who don’t do their homework.

That formative experience gave me a couple of conclusions – The stock market doesn’t extrapolate well, and I don’t understand the stock market. But there’s no shame in that, very few people do. No person on Earth knows what the market will do next.

One of the biggest lessons in The Intelligent Investor is the importance of not losing money. It takes a lot more time to recoup losses than it does to increase the investment by the same amount. People that lost 90%+ of their money when the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 still would not have been able to break-even over 20 years since. So how can you be in the market as a defensive investor but lose as little as possible?

Graham recommends a combination of bonds and index funds in a 50-50 split. If the investor is feeling bullish (optimistic) about the market, he can go up to a maximum of 75% index funds. If he is feeling bearish (pessimistic), he can increase the bonds proportion up to 75% instead. The diversification of the bonds and having shares in all the companies in an index such as the S & P 500 will shelter the investor from undue losses.

In March 2020 the stock market dropped significantly and the market value of my investments dropped several thousand dollars. With a global pandemic looming and plenty of uncertainty, I took most of my invested money out of the market. I had turned an “unrealized” paper loss into a “realized” loss. This turned out to be a big mistake, as I missed the gains I could have had on the subsequent recovery of the market to an even higher level than before.

The biggest lesson I learned from that experience is that my risk tolerance wasn’t as high as I thought it was, and it had changed over the years as my investment fund got larger. I had sensed this in the back of my mind for months on end, but I didn’t do anything about it because the market was steadily going up at the time.

Another lesson was that the more often I check my investments, the worse decisions I will make. I use a robo-investing app that rebalances my portfolio and gives me the option to automate my contributions to my fund, so there’s no real reason I should be logging in if I don’t need to. Checking investments frequently is the equivalent to appraising your house all the time, even if you don’t plan to ever sell it.

Another important thing to consider is how much money do I need in savings before I put money into investments instead? Money in savings accounts will track the rate of inflation at best, and at worst it could be losing value if inflation rates happen to be high. Over the long-term, money invested will beat the rate of inflation and will be worth more when you eventually decide to use it. This doesn’t mean that all spare money should go into investments. If you are saving for a deposit on a house, it’s better off in a savings account. Emergency funds (12-24 months of expenses) should also be in savings in case of a loss of job or a sudden large expense.

One insight The Intelligent Investor brought to me was that everyone that invests is obsessed with beating the market. But what’s actually important is asking: “Do I have enough money for my life goals?” It can be so easy to get lost in the numbers and forget what you’re actually wanting in life.

Since starting to use a robo-investing app over the last couple of years, I have noticed that it is way more fun to save and invest. Even if (or should I say when?) I end up losing a significant proportion of my portfolio again, I can be grateful in years to come that I took the conscious decision to take responsibility of my finances.